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Maximum Likelihood and Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Finance

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Author Info
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Jun Yu (Singapore Management University)

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Abstract

This paper overviews maximum likelihood and Gaussian methods of estimating continuous time models used in finance. Since the exact likelihood can be constructed only in special cases, much attention has been devoted to the development of methods designed to approximate the likelihood. These approaches range from crude Euler-type approximations and higher order stochastic Taylor series expansions to more complex polynomial-based expansions and infill approximations to the likelihood based on a continuous time data record. The methods are discussed, their properties are outlined and their relative finite sample performance compared in a simulation experiment with the nonlinear CIR diffusion model, which is popular in empirical finance. Bias correction methods are also considered and particular attention is given to jackknife and indirect inference estimators. The latter retains the good asymptotic properties of ML estimation while removing finite sample bias. This method demonstrates superior performance in finite samples.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d15b/d1597.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1597.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1597

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Maximum likelihood Transition density Discrete sampling Continuous record Realized volatility Bias reduction Jackknife Indirect inference

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
  2. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 707-742. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Y.K. Tse & Xibin Zhang & Jun Yu, 2002. "Estimation of Hyperbolic Diffusion Using MCMC Method," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Ai[dieresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Yu, Jialin, 2006. "Saddlepoint approximations for continuous-time Markov processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 507-551, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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