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New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap

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Author Info

  • Robledo, Carlos W.
  • Zapata, Hector O.
  • McCracken, Michael

Abstract

Two asymptotically valid out-of-sample MSE tests have been developed by Diebold-Mariano (1995) and Stock-Watson (1999). The empirical usefulness of the tests is illustrated through a U.S. wheat model estimated with fixed, recursive and rolling forecasting schemes. Bootstrap methods are adopted to reflect small sample size effect on tests.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20686
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL with number 20686.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20686

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Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis;

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  1. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Park, Timothy A., 1990. "Forecast Evaluation For Multivariate Time-Series Models: The U.S. Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(01), July.
  3. Annette L. Clauson, 1997. "Forecasting Retail Food Prices Under Current Conditions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1669-1672.
  4. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1998. "Bayesian Composite Qualitative Forecasting: Hog Prices Again," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 543-551.
  5. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  6. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  11. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  12. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
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