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Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity and Spurious Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Vadim Marmer

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Implications of nonlinearity, nonstationarity and misspecification are considered from a forecasting perspective. My model allows for small departures from the martingale difference sequence hypothesis by including a nonlinear component, formulated as a general, integrable transformation of the I(1) predictor. I assume that the true generating mechanism is unknown to the econometrician and he is therefore forced to use some approximating functions. I show that the usual regression techniques lead to spurious forecasts. Improvements of the forecast accuracy are possible with properly chosen nonlinear transformations of the predictor. The paper derives the limiting distribution of the forecasts’ MSE. In the case of square integrable approximants, it depends on the L2-distance between the nonlinear component and approximating function. Optimal forecasts are available for a given class of approximants.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/em/papers/0503/0503002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0503002.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 05 Mar 2005
Date of revision: 15 Dec 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0503002

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 51
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: forecasting; integrated time series; misspecified models; nonlinear transformations; stock returns; dividend-price ratio.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ioannis Kasparis & Elena Andreou & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2012. "Nonparametric Predictive Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1878, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Ioannis Kasparis & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2009. "Dynamic Misspecification in Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1700, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Katsumi Shimotsu & Alex Maynard, 2004. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 518, Econometric Society.
  4. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Dag Tjostheim & Jiying Yin, 2014. "Specification Testing for Nonlinear Multivariate Cointegrating Regressions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  5. repec:wyi:journl:002203 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:wyi:wpaper:002206 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Kasparis, Ioannis, 2010. "The Bierens test for certain nonstationary models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 221-230, October.
  8. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Ling, Tai-Hu & Chia, Ricky Chee-Jiun & Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "On the application of the rank tests for nonlinear cointegration to PPP: The case of Papua New Guinea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 326-332.
  9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Haiqiang Chen, 2013. "Robust Estimation and Inference for Threshold Models with Integrated Regressors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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