IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2016i8p640-d76019.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparative Study of Hybrid Models Based on a Series of Optimization Algorithms and Their Application in Energy System Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Xuejiao Ma

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116023, China)

  • Dandan Liu

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116023, China)

Abstract

Big data mining, analysis, and forecasting play vital roles in modern economic and industrial fields, especially in the energy system. Inaccurate forecasting may cause wastes of scarce energy or electricity shortages. However, forecasting in the energy system has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors, such as high fluctuations, autocorrelation and stochastic volatility. To forecast time series data by using hybrid models is a feasible alternative of conventional single forecasting modelling approaches. This paper develops a group of hybrid models to solve the problems above by eliminating the noise in the original data sequence and optimizing the parameters in a back propagation neural network. One of contributions of this paper is to integrate the existing algorithms and models, which jointly show advances over the present state of the art. The results of comparative studies demonstrate that the hybrid models proposed not only satisfactorily approximate the actual value but also can be an effective tool in the planning and dispatching of smart grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuejiao Ma & Dandan Liu, 2016. "Comparative Study of Hybrid Models Based on a Series of Optimization Algorithms and Their Application in Energy System Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-34, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:8:p:640-:d:76019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/8/640/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/8/640/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Shi, Jing & Guo, Jinmei & Zheng, Songtao, 2012. "Evaluation of hybrid forecasting approaches for wind speed and power generation time series," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3471-3480.
    3. Hao Chen & Qiulan Wan & Yurong Wang, 2014. "Refined Diebold-Mariano Test Methods for the Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasting Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Raviv, Eran & Bouwman, Kees E. & van Dijk, Dick, 2015. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Utilizing hourly prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-239.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Song, Yiliao & Liu, Feng & Hou, Ru, 2016. "Analysis and application of forecasting models in wind power integration: A review of multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 960-981.
    8. Khanna, Vandana & Das, B.K. & Bisht, Dinesh & Vandana, & Singh, P.K., 2015. "A three diode model for industrial solar cells and estimation of solar cell parameters using PSO algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 105-113.
    9. Osório, G.J. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2015. "Short-term wind power forecasting using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with evolutionary particle swarm optimization, wavelet transform and mutual information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 301-307.
    10. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, He & Wu, Yujie & Dong, Yao, 2015. "Forecasting solar radiation using an optimized hybrid model by Cuckoo Search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 627-644.
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Hu, Jianming & Ma, Kailiang & Zhang, Yixin, 2015. "A self-adaptive hybrid approach for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 374-385.
    12. Wang, Yung-Hung & Yeh, Chien-Hung & Young, Hsu-Wen Vincent & Hu, Kun & Lo, Men-Tzung, 2014. "On the computational complexity of the empirical mode decomposition algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 159-167.
    13. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    14. Zhang, Jie & Draxl, Caroline & Hopson, Thomas & Monache, Luca Delle & Vanvyve, Emilie & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2015. "Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 528-541.
    15. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    16. Herrera, F. & Herrera-Viedma, E. & Chiclana, F., 2001. "Multiperson decision-making based on multiplicative preference relations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 372-385, March.
    17. Aghaei, Jamshid & Muttaqi, Kashem M. & Azizivahed, Ali & Gitizadeh, Mohsen, 2014. "Distribution expansion planning considering reliability and security of energy using modified PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 398-411.
    18. Shukur, Osamah Basheer & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam, 2015. "Daily wind speed forecasting through hybrid KF-ANN model based on ARIMA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 637-647.
    19. Velázquez, Sergio & Carta, José A. & Matías, J.M., 2011. "Influence of the input layer signals of ANNs on wind power estimation for a target site: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1556-1566, April.
    20. Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2014. "Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-91.
    21. Ghasemi, A. & Shayeghi, H. & Moradzadeh, M. & Nooshyar, M., 2016. "A novel hybrid algorithm for electricity price and load forecasting in smart grids with demand-side management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 40-59.
    22. Bahrami, Saadat & Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah & Parastegari, Moein, 2014. "Short term electric load forecasting by wavelet transform and grey model improved by PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 434-442.
    23. Nieto, P.J. García & Fernández, J.R. Alonso & Suárez, V.M. González & Muñiz, C. Díaz & García-Gonzalo, E. & Bayón, R. Mayo, 2015. "A hybrid PSO optimized SVM-based method for predicting of the cyanotoxin content from experimental cyanobacteria concentrations in the Trasona reservoir: A case study in Northern Spain," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 260(C), pages 170-187.
    24. Raza, Muhammad Qamar & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1352-1372.
    25. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
    26. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hongqi & Liang, Xifeng & Li, Yanfei, 2015. "New wind speed forecasting approaches using fast ensemble empirical model decomposition, genetic algorithm, Mind Evolutionary Algorithm and Artificial Neural Networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1066-1075.
    27. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    28. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    29. De Giorgi, Maria Grazia & Ficarella, Antonio & Tarantino, Marco, 2011. "Assessment of the benefits of numerical weather predictions in wind power forecasting based on statistical methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 3968-3978.
    30. Wang, Shouxiang & Zhang, Na & Wu, Lei & Wang, Yamin, 2016. "Wind speed forecasting based on the hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition and GA-BP neural network method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 629-636.
    31. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hufang Yang & Zaiping Jiang & Haiyan Lu, 2017. "A Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting System Based on a ‘Decomposition and Ensemble’ Strategy and Fuzzy Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-30, September.
    2. Jong Hwan Suh, 2018. "Generating Future-Oriented Energy Policies and Technologies from the Multidisciplinary Group Discussions by Text-Mining-Based Identification of Topics and Experts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-33, October.
    3. Yang, Wendong & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Du, Pei, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on a dual decomposition strategy and multi-objective optimization for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1205-1225.
    4. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Alicia Troncoso & José C. Riquelme, 2017. "Recent Advances in Energy Time Series Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-3, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei & Li, Yifan, 2018. "Research and application of a hybrid forecasting framework based on multi-objective optimization for electrical power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 59-78.
    2. Li, Hongmin & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai, 2018. "Research and application of a combined model based on variable weight for short term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 669-684.
    3. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    4. Wang, Jian & Yang, Zhongshan, 2021. "Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting using an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1418-1435.
    5. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    6. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    8. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    10. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    11. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    12. Wang, Yun & Wang, Jianzhou & Wei, Xiang, 2015. "A hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on phase space reconstruction theory and Markov model: A case study of wind farms in northwest China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 556-572.
    13. Hufang Yang & Zaiping Jiang & Haiyan Lu, 2017. "A Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting System Based on a ‘Decomposition and Ensemble’ Strategy and Fuzzy Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-30, September.
    14. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    15. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    16. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    17. Ping Jiang & Zeng Wang & Kequan Zhang & Wendong Yang, 2017. "An Innovative Hybrid Model Based on Data Pre-Processing and Modified Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-29, July.
    18. Hu, Jianming & Heng, Jiani & Wen, Jiemei & Zhao, Weigang, 2020. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting with de-noising-reconstruction strategy and quantile regression based algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1208-1226.
    19. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    20. Wu, Jie & Li, Na & Zhao, Yan & Wang, Jujie, 2022. "Usage of correlation analysis and hypothesis test in optimizing the gated recurrent unit network for wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:8:p:640-:d:76019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.