An Unobserved Components Model to forecast Austrian GDP
AbstractThis paper deals with forecasting quarterly Austrian GDP growth using monthly conjunctural indicators and state space models. The latter provide an efficient econometric framework to analyse jointly data with different frequencies. Based on a Kalman filter technique we estimate a monthly GDP growth series as an unobserved component using monthly conjunctural indicators as explanatory variables. From a large data set of more than 150 monthly indicators the following six explanatory variables were selected on the basis of their in-sample fit and out of sample forecast performance: the ifo-index, credit growth, vacancies, the real exchange rate, the number of employees and new car registrations. Subsequently, quarterly GDP figures are derived from the monthly unobserved component using a weighted aggregation scheme. Several tests for forecasting accuracy and forecasting encompassing indicate that the unobserved components model (UOC-model) is able to outperform simple ARIMA and Naïve models. JEL classification:
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 119.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-05-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2006-05-06 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-05-06 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2006-05-06 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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