Forecasting the Yield Curve for the Euro Region
AbstractThis paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one-month forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 247.
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
Other versions of this item:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-08-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-08-29 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-08-29 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benjamin Tabak).
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