Forecasting the Yield Curve for the Euro Region
AbstractThis paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one-month forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 247.
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
Other versions of this item:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-08-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-08-29 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-08-29 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008.
"The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve,"
0804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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- Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Economics Papers 2008-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004.
"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2004/09, Center for Financial Studies.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jose Vicente & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007.
"Forecasting Bonds Yields in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market,"
Working Papers Series
141, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Vicente, José & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 490-497.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
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American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benjamin Tabak).
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