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The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

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  • Della Corte, P.
  • Sarno, L.
  • Sestieri, G.

Abstract

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major US dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 313.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:313

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Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: foreign exchange; predictability; global imbalances; fundamentals.;

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  1. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Robert Z. Aliber & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Shu Yan, 2003. "Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions May Increase Volatility," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 481-510.
  3. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
  4. Yufeng Han, 2006. "Asset Allocation with a High Dimensional Latent Factor Stochastic Volatility Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 237-271.
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  7. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Testing Long-Horizon Predictive Ability With High Persistence, And The Meese-Rogoff Puzzle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 61-92, 02.
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  24. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  25. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value," Working Papers 2006-061, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bussière, M., 2013. "In Defense of Early Warning Signals," Working papers 420, Banque de France.
  2. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  3. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
  4. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2011. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 17691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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