Is the predictability of emerging and developed stock markets really exploitable?
AbstractA number of recent papers have analyzed the degree of predictability of stock markets. In this paper, we firstly study whether this predictability is really exploitable and secondly, if the economic significance of predictability is higher or lower in the emerging stock markets than in the developed ones. We use a variety of linear and nonlinear â Artificial Neural Networks â models and perform a computationally demanding forecasting experiment to assess the predictability of returns. Since we are interested in comparing the predictability in economic terms we also propose a modification in the netsâ loss function for market trading purposes. In addition, we consider both explicit and implicit trading costs for emerging and developed stock markets. Our conclusions suggest that, in contrast to some previous studies, if we consider total trading costs both the emerging as well as the developed stock returns are clearly nonpredictable. Finally, we find that Artificial Neural Networks do not provide superior performance than the linear models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.
Volume (Year): 182 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
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Other versions of this item:
- Moreno, David & Olmeda, Ignacio, 2007. "Is the predictability of emerging and developed stock markets really exploitable?," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/7746, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
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