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Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade

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Author Info
Alexei Goriaev () (CEFIR/New Economic School)
Alexei Zabotkin ()

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Abstract

The modern history of the Russian stock market has mirrored ups and downs of the country’s transition as well as swings in investor perceptions. In this paper, we describe the evolution of the Russian stock market over its first decade, with particular attention to the risk factors driving stock returns. First, we analyze the development of the institutional infrastructure and dynamics of the market’s size and liquidity measured by the number of listed and traded stocks, depositary receipts and IPOs as well as trading volume in the local stock exchanges and abroad. Then, we examine major political and economic events, which influenced the investor perceptions of the country risk and were reflected in stock prices. Finally, we carry out quantitative analysis of risk factors explaining considerable time and cross-sectional variation in Russian stock returns. We document a significant role of corporate governance, political risk, and macroeconomic risk factors, such as global equity markets performance, oil prices, and exchange rates, whose relative importance varied a lot over time.

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Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0077.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0077

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Keywords: financial institutions; risk factors; Russian stock market;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Goriaev, Alexei P. & Sonin, Konstantin, 2005. "Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair," CEPR Discussion Papers 5076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fedorov, Pavel & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2000. "Cross-sectional variations in the degree of global integration: the case of Russian equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 131-150, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. van der Hart, Jaap & Slagter, Erica & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Stock selection strategies in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernard S. Black & Inessa Love & Andrei Rachinsky, 2005. "Corporate Governance and Firms' Market Values: Time Series Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0053, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
  10. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Wayne Wu, 1999. "The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why do Emerging Markets have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 44, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans A., 2005. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 583-613, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 623-638, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2005. "A ten-year retrospection of the behavior of Russian stock returns," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  16. Konstantin Sonin, 2003. "Why the Rich May Favor Poor Protection of Property Rights," Working Papers w0022, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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  17. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Hoff, Karla & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2002. "After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the emergence of the rule of law in post-communist societies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2934, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Sergei Guriev & Andrei Rachinsky, 2005. "The Role of Oligarchs in Russian Capitalism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 131-150, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Saleem, Kashif & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2007. "Time-varying global and local sources of risk in Russian stock market," MPRA Paper 4795, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Soultanaeva, Albina, 2008. "Impact of Political News on the Baltic State Stock Markets," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 735, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Muravyev, Alexander, 2009. "Investor protection and share prices: Evidence from statutory rules governing variations of shareholders’ class rights in Russia," MPRA Paper 13678, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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