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Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair

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  • Goriaev, Alexei P.
  • Sonin, Konstantin

Abstract

The Yukos affair, a high-profile story of the state-led assault on a private Russian company, provides an excellent opportunity for an inquiry into the nature of company-specific political risks in emerging markets. News associated primarily with law enforcement agencies’ actions against company’s managers, not formally related to the company itself, caused significant negative abnormal returns for Yukos. The results are robust and not driven by a few major events, such as the arrests of Yukos’ top managers and shareholders. Stocks of less transparent private Russian companies have been more sensitive to Yukos-related events, especially employee-related charges by the law enforcement agencies. The situation was different for less transparent government-owned companies such as the world-largest natural gas producer Gazprom: they appear to be significantly less sensitive to these events. Actions of regulatory agencies have had predominantly industry-wide impact, whereas law-enforcement agencies’ actions affected shares of large private companies, especially those were privatized in the notorious loans-for-shares privatization auctions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5076.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5076

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Keywords: company specific political risk; event study; oil; privatization; Russian stock market;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav & Kuznetsov, Andrei & Demina, Natalia & Kuznetsova, Olga, 2013. "Threats to security of property rights in a transition economy: An empirical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 245-264.
  2. Konstantin Sonin & Sergei Guriev, 2008. "Dictators and Oligarchs: A Dynamic Theory of Contested Property Rights," 2008 Meeting Papers 1072, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Art Durnev & Vihang Errunza & Alexander Molchanov, 2009. "Property rights protection, corporate transparency, and growth," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(9), pages 1533-1562, December.
  4. Alexeev, Michael & Weber, Shlomo (ed.), 2013. "The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199759927.
  5. Olga Lazareva & Andrei Rachinsky & Sergey Stepanov, 2007. "A Survey of Corporate Governance in Russia," Working Papers w0103, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  6. Alexei Goriaev & Alexei Zabotkin, 2006. "Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade," Working Papers w0077, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  7. Alexander Libman, 2006. "Government-Business Relations and Catching Up Reforms in the CIS," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 3(2), pages 263-288, December.
  8. Benjamin Maury & Eva Liljeblom, 2009. "Oligarchs, political regime changes, and firm valuation," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(3), pages 411-438, 07.
  9. Al Khattab, Adel & Anchor, John R. & Davies, Eleanor M.M., 2008. "The institutionalisation of political risk assessment (IPRA) in Jordanian international firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 688-702, December.
  10. Durnev, Art & Fauver, Larry, 2008. "Stealing from Thieves: Firm Governance and Performance when States are Predatory," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-12, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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