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The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations

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Author Info

  • Jonsson, Thomas
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

We evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations and find that they are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Concerning out-of-sample forecast precision, survey participants generally perform worse than a constant forecast. Caution should accordingly be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511003144
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 113 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 276-281

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:3:p:276-281

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Related research

Keywords: Survey data; Forecasts; Sweden; Monetary policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Policy Interest-Rate Expectations in Sweden: A Forecast Evaluation," Working Paper 127, National Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
  3. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.

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