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Indirect estimation of agent-based models.An application to a simple diffusion model

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  • Jacob Grazzini
  • Matteo Richiardi
  • Lisa Sella

Abstract

Starting from an agent-based interpretation of the well-known Bass innovation diffusion model, we perform a Montecarlo analysis of the performance of a method of simulated moment estimator. We show that nonlinearities of the moments lead to a small bias in the estimates in small populations, and prove that our estimates are consistent and converge to the true values as population size increases. Our approach can be generalized to the estimation of more complex agent-based models. However, a trade-off emerges between model inadequacy and data inadequacy. This is particularly severe when only aggregate information is available, as common with diffusion data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies in its series LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series with number 118.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:118

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Related research

Keywords: diffusion model; method of simulated moments; estimation;

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  1. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
  2. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
  3. Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Grazzini Jakob, 2011. "Estimating Micromotives from Macrobehavior," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201111, University of Turin.
  5. Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli, 2002. "Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 314, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Leombruni, Roberto & Richiardi, Matteo, 2005. "Why are economists sceptical about agent-based simulations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 103-109.
  7. Steven Stern, 1997. "Simulation-Based Estimation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 2006-2039, December.
  8. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  9. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2006. "Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 38-42.
  10. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
  11. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  12. Manfred Gilli & Peter Winker & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2006. "An Objective Function for Simulation Based Inference on Exchange Rate Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 147, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "On the Econometrics of the Bass Diffusion Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 255-268, July.
  14. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  15. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2013. "Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201335, University of Turin.
  2. Michael Neugart & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2012. "Agent-based models of the labor market," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 125, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.

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