IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i8p2875-d163542.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Kyungwon Kim

    (AI Center, Samsung Research, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Seoul R&D Campus, Seoul 06765, Korea)

  • Jae Wook Song

    (Department of Data Science, Sejong University, Seoul 05006, Korea)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a real options framework to measure and manage bubbles in the Korean real estate market. The proposed framework carefully defines and utilizes the unique leasing mechanism in Korea, called the Jeonse system, a tentative contract for one or two years with a large amount of deposit, to represent the value of residence. Furthermore, the proposed framework applies the volatility with heteroscedasticity to improve the numerical accuracy in comparison to the traditional real options valuation model. The results of the model ultimately suggest the investment strategy that takes into account the measured bubbles in the market. Specifically, given that the Korean real estate market could be regarded as an American option, the investment strategy with early exercise completely eliminates the existing arbitrage opportunities in both long and short positions. In this context, the investment decisions based on the results of the proposed framework are expected to encourage the reflection of bubble-related information in the market, which eventually reduces the formation of bubbles via market mechanism for arbitrage elimination. In conclusion, the bubble-related information obtained from the model is expected to contribute to the stability of the real estate market by reducing the volatility of house price and quick price adjustment to new information.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2875-:d:163542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/8/2875/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/8/2875/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    2. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Jeffrey Nugent, 2011. "Real options and demographic decisions: empirical evidence from East and West Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2739-2749.
    3. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    4. Koh, Winston T.H. & Mariano, Roberto S. & Pavlov, Andrey & Phang, Sock Yong & Tan, Augustine H.H. & Wachter, Susan M., 2005. "Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1103-1118, January.
    5. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    6. Dennis R. Capozza & Yuming Li, 2001. "Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 503-519, March.
    7. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
    8. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty: Keeping One's Options Open," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1816-1831, December.
    9. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    10. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
    11. Robert G. Fichman, 2004. "Real Options and IT Platform Adoption: Implications for Theory and Practice," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 132-154, June.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    13. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
    14. Michel Benaroch & Robert J. Kauffman, 1999. "A Case for Using Real Options Pricing Analysis to Evaluate Information Technology Project Investments," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 70-86, March.
    15. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    16. Heli Wang & Sonya Seongyeon Lim, 2008. "Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(7), pages 701-721, July.
    17. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    18. Edward H. Bowman & Gary T. Moskowitz, 2001. "Real Options Analysis and Strategic Decision Making," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(6), pages 772-777, December.
    19. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    20. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    21. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    22. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    23. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Suh, Seoung Hwan, 1993. "Speculation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-87, January.
    24. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    25. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    26. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.
    27. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    28. David Kim Hin Ho & Eddie Chi-man Hui & Muhammad Faishal Bin Ibrahim, 2009. "Asset Value Enhancement of Singapore’s Public Housing Main Upgrading Programme (MUP) Policy: A Real Option Analysis Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(11), pages 2329-2361, October.
    29. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    30. Rita Gunther McGrath & Atul Nerkar, 2004. "Real options reasoning and a new look at the R&D investment strategies of pharmaceutical firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-21, January.
    31. Raffaele Oriani & Maurizio Sobrero, 2008. "Uncertainty and the market valuation of R&D within a real options logic," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 343-361, April.
    32. Chung-Ho Kim & Kyung-Hwan Kim, 2000. "The Political Economy of Korean Government Policies on Real Estate," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(7), pages 1157-1169, June.
    33. Cauley, Stephen Day & Pavlov, Andrey D, 2002. "Rational Delays: The Case of Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 143-165, Jan.-Marc.
    34. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    35. Quigg, Laura, 1993. "Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-640, June.
    36. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1998. "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 198-217, April.
    37. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
    38. C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2001. "Permits, Starts, and Completions: Structural Relationships Versus Real Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 161-190.
    39. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    40. Patel, Kanak & Sing, Tien Foo, 2000. "Implied Volatility in the U.K. Commercial Property Market: Empirical Evidence Based on Transaction Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 5-24, January.
    41. Jie Gan, 2007. "The Real Effects of Asset Market Bubbles: Loan- and Firm-Level Evidence of a Lending Channel," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1941-1973, November.
    42. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
    43. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    44. A. Steven Holland & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2000. "The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-64.
    45. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    46. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, April.
    47. Pablo de Andres-Alonso & Valentin Azofra-Palenzuela & Gabriel de la Fuente-Herrero, 2005. "Real options as a component of the market value of stocks: evidence from the Spanish Stock Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(14), pages 1673-1691.
    48. Lentz, George H & Tse, K S Maurice, 1995. "An Option Pricing Approach to the Valuation of Real Estate Contaminated with Hazardous Materials," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 121-144, March.
    49. Damodaran, Aswath & Lim, Joseph, 1991. "The effects of option listing on the underlying stocks' return processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 647-664, June.
    50. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    51. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    52. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    53. Marc Lavielle & Gilles Teyssière, 2007. "Adaptive Detection of Multiple Change-Points in Asset Price Volatility," Springer Books, in: Gilles Teyssière & Alan P. Kirman (ed.), Long Memory in Economics, pages 129-156, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marek Durica & Danuse Guttenova & Ludovit Pinda & Lucia Svabova, 2018. "Sustainable Value of Investment in Real Estate: Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2020. "Detecting Possible Reduction of the Housing Bubble in Korea for Different Residential Types and Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    2. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, August.
    3. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Renigier-Biłozor Małgorzata & d’Amato Maurizio, 2017. "The Valuation of Hope Value for Real Estate Development," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 91-101, June.
    6. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    7. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    8. Andrianos Tsekrekos & George Kanoutos, 2013. "Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 152-168, July.
    9. Robert Grovenstein & James Kau & Henry Munneke, 2011. "Development Value: A Real Options Approach Using Empirical Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 321-335, October.
    10. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    11. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    12. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    13. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.
    14. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2020. "Detecting Possible Reduction of the Housing Bubble in Korea for Different Residential Types and Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, February.
    15. John Clapp & Katsiaryna Bardos & Tingyu Zhou, 2014. "Expansions and Contractions of Major US Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 16-56, January.
    16. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
    17. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    18. Gang‐Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Tien Foo Sing & Xiaoyu Zhang, 2022. "Risk aversion and urban land development options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 767-788, September.
    19. Chi-Yo Huang & Hong-Ling Hsieh & Hueiling Chen, 2020. "Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-41, May.
    20. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2875-:d:163542. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.