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Implied Volatility in the U.K. Commercial Property Market: Empirical Evidence Based on Transaction Data

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  • Patel, Kanak
  • Sing, Tien Foo

Abstract

The primary aim of this research is to compute implied volatility based on a stochastic contingent claim valuation model proposed by Dixit and Pindyck (1994). Over the sample period of 1984 to 1997, and with approximately 20,000 commercial property transactions in the United Kingdom, we find that implied volatility of rental returns is in the region of 24.83 percent. Over the same sample period, the historical and conditional standard deviations of the log returns of transaction-based rental series is estimated to be 15.60 percent and 35.64 percent, respectively. The tests of information content of these risk measures show that there is strong orthogonality in the information impounded in implied volatility estimates compared to that contained in historical standard deviations. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Patel, Kanak & Sing, Tien Foo, 2000. "Implied Volatility in the U.K. Commercial Property Market: Empirical Evidence Based on Transaction Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 5-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:20:y:2000:i:1:p:5-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & des Rosiers, François & Grégoire, Philippe, 2015. "The pricing of embedded lease options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 215-220.
    2. Brenner, Steffen & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Schulz, Rainer, 2003. "Immobilienbewertung mit dem Realoptionsverfahren: Eine Umsetzungsstudie," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Ting, Sai Hung Marten & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Wang, Wen-Kai, 2013. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship in a real option model with stochastic volatility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 22-32.
    4. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Erica Jiajia Ding, 2008. "Intra-metropolitan Office Price and Trading Volume Dynamics: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 47-74.
    5. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    6. Kim, Jeong-Hoon & Lee, Min-Ku & Sohn, So Young, 2014. "Investment timing under hybrid stochastic and local volatility," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 58-72.
    7. Zhi Dong & Tien Foo Sing, 2021. "Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(1), pages 79-123, April.

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