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Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models

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Author Info
 Quigg, Laura
Abstract

This research is the first to examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of market prices. The author finds empirical support for a model that incorporates the option to wait to develop land. The option model has explanatory power for predicting transactions prices over and above the intrinsic value. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to invest that has a mean value of 6 percent in the sample. The author also estimates implied standard deviations for individual commercial property prices ranging from 18 to 28 percent per year. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199306%2948%3A2%3C621%3AETOROM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4&origin=repec
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 621-40
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:2:p:621-40

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  1. Laarni Bulan & Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2006. "Irreversible Investment, Real Options, and Competition: Evidence from Real Estate Development," NBER Working Papers 12486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Flavia Cortelezzi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo, 2006. "Strategic Urban Development under Uncertainty," Working Papers 20060601, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matthew Clayton & David Yermack, 1999. "Major League Baseball Player Contracts: An Investigation of the Empirical Properties of Real Options," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-051, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  4. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tien Foo Sing, 2002. "Time to build options in construction processes," Construction Management & Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 119-130, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Junjian Miao & Neng Wang, 2005. "Investment, Consumption and Hedging under Incomplete Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-011, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2006. "Monte Carlo Simulations versus DCF in Real Estate Portfolio Valuation," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06002, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arantza Murillas, 2000. "Uncertainty and Real Options. Investment and Development of Fishing Resources (I)," BILTOKI 200001, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística). [Downloadable!]
  9. Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2004. "Investment, Hedging, and Consumption Smoothing," Finance 0407014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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