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Indirect Likelihood Inference

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  • Creel, Michael
  • Kristensen, Dennis

Abstract

Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let $Z_n$ be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of $Z_n$. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a com- putationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 8.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:008

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Keywords: indirect inference; maximum-likelihood; simulation-based methods; bias correction; Bayesian estimation;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Creel & Dennis Kristensen, 2013. "Indirect Likelihood Inference (revised)," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 931.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  2. Martin M. Andreasen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2013. "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," CREATES Research Papers 2013-12, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.

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