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Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated non‐parametric moments

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  • Michael Creel
  • Dennis Kristensen

Abstract

. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michael Creel & Dennis Kristensen, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated non‐parametric moments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(3), pages 490-515, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emjrnl:v:15:y:2012:i:3:p:490-515
    DOI: j.1368-423X.2012.00387.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2012.00387.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Zefang & Song, Xinyuan & Li, Yuan, 2023. "Bayesian Analysis of ARCH-M model with a dynamic latent variable," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-62.
    2. Kristensen, Dennis & Salanié, Bernard, 2017. "Higher-order properties of approximate estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 189-208.
    3. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 13089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 17856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    6. Dennis Kristensen & Bernard Salanié, 2010. "Higher Order Improvements for Approximate Estimators," CAM Working Papers 2010-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    7. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2012. "Examining the ability of core inflation to capture the overall trend of total inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 493-514, February.
    8. Michael Creel & Dennis Kristensen, "undated". "Indirect Likelihood Inference," Working Papers 558, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    10. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Creel, Michael & Kristensen, Dennis, 2015. "ABC of SV: Limited information likelihood inference in stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 85-108.
    13. Agnieszka Leszczynska, 2014. "Willingness to Pay for Green Products vs Ecological Value System," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 3(1), pages 67-77.
    14. Michael Creel & Dennis Kristensen, 2013. "Indirect Likelihood Inference (revised)," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 931.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    15. Michael Creel, 2016. "A Note on Julia and MPI, with Code Examples," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 535-546, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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