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Stock Market Returns and Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market: The Case of Korea

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  • FANGXIONG GONG
  • ROBERTO MARIANO

Abstract

This paper investigates the feedback relationship between stock market returns and economic fundamentals in an emerging market. Starting from an intertemporal consumption-based CAPM (CCAPM), we obtain a restricted VAR model for stock returns and macroeconomic variables. We then apply this model to Korea and find statistically significant departures from the restrictions implied by CCAPM. Consequently, an unrestricted VAR model is used to analyze the variations of expected and unexpected returns in the Korean stock market. It is shown that the expected market returns vary with a set of macroeconomic variables, and that the predictable component is substantial. Reflecting richer dynamics in the data, relative to the usual single equation modeling in the literature, the estimated VAR model shows considerable predictive ability for both real economic activity and real returns. Using the model for a variance decomposition of unexpected returns, we find that, although we cannot directly observe the market's revision of expected future dividend growth, we can estimate a large part of the revision with the news in the expected industry output growth from our VAR model. Finally, we also find that economic fundamentals can explain only a small portion of the variation in unexpected returns in the Korean stock market. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1009673814889
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Asia-Pacific Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 4 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 147-169

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Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:4:y:1997:i:2:p:147-169

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102851

Related research

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Consumption based CAPM; emerging markets; expected returns; unexpected returns; variance decomposition; vector autoregressive processes.;

References

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  1. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
  2. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1988. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," Working Papers 88-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Abel, Andrew B., 1988. "Stock prices under time-varying dividend risk : An exact solution in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 375-393.
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  7. Cheung, Ying-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian, 1995. "Pacific-Basin stock markets and real activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 143-143, May.
  8. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
  9. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  11. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Esref Savas BASCI & S├╝leyman Serdar KARACA, 2013. "The Determinants of Stock Market Index: VAR Approach to Turkish Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 163-171.

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