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Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models

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Author Info
Ray C. Fair () (Yale University, Cowles Foundation)

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Abstract

This paper outlines a bootstrapping approach to the estimation and analysis of macroeconometric models. It integrates for dynamic, nonlinear, simultaneous equation models the bootstrapping approach to evaluating estimators initiated by Efron (1979) and the stochastic simulation approach to evaluating models' properties initiated by Adelman and Adelman (1959). It also estimates for a particular model the gain in coverage accuracy from using bootstrap confidence intervals over asymptotic confidence intervals.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13a/d1345.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1345.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2001
Date of revision: Jun 2003
Publication status: Published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 4, Article 1
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1345

Note: CFP 1195.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Bootstrapping; stochastic simulation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  4. G. S. Hongyi Li, 1996. "Bootstrapping time series models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 115-158. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1984. "Residual-Based Procedures for Prediction and Estimation in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 321-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Econometrics 9602009, EconWPA, revised 05 Mar 1996. [Downloadable!]
  8. W. Härdle & J. Horowitz & J.-P. Kreiss, . "Bootstrap Methods For Time Series," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-59, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  9. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Yoel Haitovsky & Neil Wallace, 1972. "A Study Of Discretionary And Nondiscretionary Monetary And Fiscal Policies In The Context Of Stochastic Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect Vol 1: The Business Cycle Today, pages 261-310 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Michael K. Evans & Lawrence R. Klein & Mitsuo Saito & Michael D. McCarthy, 1972. "Short-Run Prediction And Long-Run Simulation Of The Wharton Model," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Vols. 1 and 2, pages 139-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008. "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Papers 112, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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