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The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

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  • Della Corte, Pasquale
  • Sarno, Lucio
  • Sestieri, Giulia

Abstract

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major US dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8045.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8045

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Keywords: foreign exchange; fundamentals; global imbalances; predictability;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
  2. Hélène Rey & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2010. "Home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  3. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Bussière, M., 2013. "In Defense of Early Warning Signals," Working papers 420, Banque de France.

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