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The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

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  • Sarno, Lucio
  • Della Corte, Pasquale
  • Sestieri, Giulia

Abstract

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major US dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarno, Lucio & Della Corte, Pasquale & Sestieri, Giulia, 2010. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8045, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8045
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; Fundamentals; Global imbalances; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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