IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i13p2467-d243188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Kailai Ni

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

  • Jianzhou Wang

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

  • Guangyu Tang

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

  • Danxiang Wei

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

Abstract

Electricity load forecasting plays an essential role in improving the management efficiency of power generation systems. A large number of load forecasting models aiming at promoting the forecasting effectiveness have been put forward in the past. However, many traditional models have no consideration for the significance of data preprocessing and the constraints of individual forecasting models. Moreover, most of them only focus on the forecasting accuracy but ignore the forecasting stability, resulting in nonoptimal performance in practical applications. This paper presents a novel hybrid model that combines an advanced data preprocessing strategy, a deep neural network, and an avant-garde multi-objective optimization algorithm, overcoming the defects of traditional models and thus improving the forecasting performance effectively. In order to evaluate the validity of the proposed hybrid model, the electricity load data sampled in 30-min intervals from Queensland, Australia are used as a case to study. The experiments show that the new proposed model is obviously superior to all other traditional models. Furthermore, it provides an effective technical forecasting means for smart grid management.

Suggested Citation

  • Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:13:p:2467-:d:243188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/13/2467/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/13/2467/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Guo-Feng & Peng, Li-Ling & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2018. "Short term load forecasting based on phase space reconstruction algorithm and bi-square kernel regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 13-33.
    2. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z. & Al-Nassar, Y.N., 1997. "Modelling and forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using abductive networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 911-921.
    3. Li, Z. & Hurn, A.S. & Clements, A.E., 2017. "Forecasting quantiles of day-ahead electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 60-71.
    4. Wei-Chiang Hong & Guo-Feng Fan, 2019. "Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition with Support Vector Regression Model for Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Afshar, K. & Bigdeli, N., 2011. "Data analysis and short term load forecasting in Iran electricity market using singular spectral analysis (SSA)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2620-2627.
    6. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    7. Tongxiang Liu & Yu Jin & Yuyang Gao, 2019. "A New Hybrid Approach for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Whale Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    8. Alikar, Najmeh & Mousavi, Seyed Mohsen & Raja Ghazilla, Raja Ariffin & Tavana, Madjid & Olugu, Ezutah Udoncy, 2017. "Application of the NSGA-II algorithm to a multi-period inventory-redundancy allocation problem in a series-parallel system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Li, Song & Goel, Lalit & Wang, Peng, 2016. "An ensemble approach for short-term load forecasting by extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 22-29.
    10. Chen, Yongbao & Xu, Peng & Chu, Yiyi & Li, Weilin & Wu, Yuntao & Ni, Lizhou & Bao, Yi & Wang, Kun, 2017. "Short-term electrical load forecasting using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to calculate the demand response baseline for office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 659-670.
    11. Yongquan Dong & Zichen Zhang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "A Hybrid Seasonal Mechanism with a Chaotic Cuckoo Search Algorithm with a Support Vector Regression Model for Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Dezhi & Tan, Zhongfu & Zhou, Jianhua, 2018. "Short term electricity load forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 774-781.
    13. Ming-Wei Li & Jing Geng & Shumei Wang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Hybrid Chaotic Quantum Bat Algorithm with SVR in Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Chiou-Jye Huang & Ping-Huan Kuo, 2018. "A Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model by Using Artificial Neural Networks with Stochastic Optimization for Renewable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Li, Wei-Qin & Chang, Li, 2018. "A combination model with variable weight optimization for short-term electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 575-593.
    16. Borhanazad, Hanieh & Mekhilef, Saad & Gounder Ganapathy, Velappa & Modiri-Delshad, Mostafa & Mirtaheri, Ali, 2014. "Optimization of micro-grid system using MOPSO," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 295-306.
    17. Xin Gao & Xiaobing Li & Bing Zhao & Weijia Ji & Xiao Jing & Yang He, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Model Based on EMD-GRU with Feature Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2018. "Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 149-164.
    19. Weide Li & Demeng Kong & Jinran Wu, 2017. "A Novel Hybrid Model Based on Extreme Learning Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor Regression and Wavelet Denoising Applied to Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    20. Wang, Jianzhou & Heng, Jiani & Xiao, Liye & Wang, Chen, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 591-613.
    21. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    22. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Yu, Mengxia & Ma, Jing & Jin, Congjun, 2017. "Research and application of a hybrid wavelet neural network model with the improved cuckoo search algorithm for electrical power system forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 203-222.
    23. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    24. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
    25. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    26. Ming-Wei Li & Jing Geng & Wei-Chiang Hong & Yang Zhang, 2018. "Hybridizing Chaotic and Quantum Mechanisms and Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm with Least Squares Support Vector Regression Model in Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, August.
    27. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    28. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    29. Zhao, Xuejing & Wang, Chen & Su, Jinxia & Wang, Jianzhou, 2019. "Research and application based on the swarm intelligence algorithm and artificial intelligence for wind farm decision system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 681-697.
    30. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z., 1997. "Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using univariate time-series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1059-1069.
    31. Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei & Li, Yifan, 2018. "Research and application of a hybrid forecasting framework based on multi-objective optimization for electrical power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 59-78.
    32. An, Ning & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Shang, Duo & Zhao, Erdong, 2013. "Using multi-output feedforward neural network with empirical mode decomposition based signal filtering for electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 279-288.
    33. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Linyue & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Interval forecasting system for electricity load based on data pre-processing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    3. Qiangqiang Cheng & Yiqi Yan & Shichao Liu & Chunsheng Yang & Hicham Chaoui & Mohamad Alzayed, 2020. "Particle Filter-Based Electricity Load Prediction for Grid-Connected Microgrid Day-Ahead Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Danxiang Wei & Jianzhou Wang & Kailai Ni & Guangyu Tang, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network Combined with Fuzzy Time Series for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-38, September.
    5. Xiaosheng Peng & Kai Cheng & Jianxun Lang & Zuowei Zhang & Tao Cai & Shanxu Duan, 2021. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction for Wind Farm Clusters Based on SFFS Feature Selection and BLSTM Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Wu, Jinran & Cui, Zhesen & Chen, Yanyan & Kong, Demeng & Wang, You-Gan, 2019. "A new hybrid model to predict the electrical load in five states of Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 598-609.
    3. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    4. Zhang, Jinliang & Siya, Wang & Zhongfu, Tan & Anli, Sun, 2023. "An improved hybrid model for short term power load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
    6. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    7. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    8. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    9. Bin Li & Mingzhen Lu & Yiyi Zhang & Jia Huang, 2019. "A Weekend Load Forecasting Model Based on Semi-Parametric Regression Analysis Considering Weather and Load Interaction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Yang, Wendong & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Du, Pei, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on a dual decomposition strategy and multi-objective optimization for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1205-1225.
    11. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Yuanyuan Zhou & Min Zhou & Qing Xia & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2019. "Construction of EMD-SVR-QGA Model for Electricity Consumption: Case of University Dormitory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    14. Sungwoo Park & Jihoon Moon & Seungwon Jung & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    15. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    16. Tongxiang Liu & Yu Jin & Yuyang Gao, 2019. "A New Hybrid Approach for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Whale Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    17. Chengshi Tian & Yan Hao, 2018. "A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, March.
    18. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    19. Wu, Zhuochun & Zhao, Xiaochen & Ma, Yuqing & Zhao, Xinyan, 2019. "A hybrid model based on modified multi-objective cuckoo search algorithm for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 896-909.
    20. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Dezhi & Tan, Zhongfu & Zhou, Jianhua, 2018. "Short term electricity load forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 774-781.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:13:p:2467-:d:243188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.