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Fast Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power for Real-Time Control of Energy Storage System

Author

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  • Mostafa Majidpour

    (Smart Grid Energy Research Center, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
    Senior Data Scientist, Meredith Corporation, Los Angeles, CA 90025, USA)

  • Hamidreza Nazaripouya

    (Winston Chung Global Energy Center, University of California, Riverside (UCR), Riverside, CA 92507, USA)

  • Peter Chu

    (Smart Grid Energy Research Center, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

  • Hemanshu R. Pota

    (School of Engineering & Information Technology, University of NSW, Canberra, ACT 2610, Australia)

  • Rajit Gadh

    (Smart Grid Energy Research Center, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, super-short-term prediction of solar power generation for applications in dynamic control of energy system has been investigated. In order to follow and satisfy the dynamics of the controller, the deployed prediction method should have a fast response time. To this end, this paper proposes fast prediction methods to provide the control system with one step ahead of solar power generation. The proposed methods are based on univariate time series prediction. That is, instead of using external data such as the weather forecast as the input of prediction algorithms, they solely rely on past values of solar power data, hence lowering the volume and acquisition time of input data. In addition, the selected algorithms are able to generate the forecast output in less than a second. The proposed methods in this paper are grounded on four well-known prediction algorithms including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), K-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF). The speed and accuracy of the proposed algorithms have been compared based on two different error measures, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). Real world data collected from the PV installation at the University of California, Riverside (UCR) are used for prediction purposes. The results show that kNN and RF have better predicting performance with respect to SMAPE and MAE criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Mostafa Majidpour & Hamidreza Nazaripouya & Peter Chu & Hemanshu R. Pota & Rajit Gadh, 2018. "Fast Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power for Real-Time Control of Energy Storage System," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:1:y:2018:i:1:p:8-120:d:170362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
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    4. Philippe Lauret & Mathieu David & Hugo T. C. Pedro, 2017. "Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Ferlito, S. & Adinolfi, G. & Graditi, G., 2017. "Comparative analysis of data-driven methods online and offline trained to the forecasting of grid-connected photovoltaic plant production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 116-129.
    6. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
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    8. Majidpour, Mostafa & Qiu, Charlie & Chu, Peter & Pota, Hemanshu R. & Gadh, Rajit, 2016. "Forecasting the EV charging load based on customer profile or station measurement?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 134-141.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamidreza Nazaripouya, 2022. "Integration and Control of Distributed Renewable Energy Resources," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-4, March.
    2. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Zoltan Varga & Ervin Racz, 2022. "Machine Learning Analysis on the Performance of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell—Thermoelectric Generator Hybrid System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Sarah Hadri & Mehdi Najib & Mohamed Bakhouya & Youssef Fakhri & Mohamed El Arroussi, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Forecasting Strategies for Electricity Consumption in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-17, September.

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