Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects
AbstractThe United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans, so any impact on US crop yields will have implications for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level crop yields in the US with a fine-scale weather data set that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures between the minimum and maximum within each day and across all days in the growing season. Yields increase in temperature until about 29C for corn, 30C for soybeans, and 32C for cotton, but temperatures above these thresholds become very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found whether we consider time series or cross-sectional variation in weather and yields. This suggests limited potential for adaptation within crop species because the latter includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the former does not. Area-weighted average yields given current growing regions are predicted to decrease by 31-43% under the slowest warming scenario and 67-79% under the most rapid warming scenario by the end of the century.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13799.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects," Discussion Papers 0607-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2008-02-16 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2008-02-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2008-02-16 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2008-02-16 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher Timmins, 2006. "Endogenous Land use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 119-142, 01.
- Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone, 2006.
"The Economic Impacts of Climate Change Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather,"
0601, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Deschenes, Olivier & Greenstone, Michael, 2004. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6w7242cj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Michael Greenstone & Olivier Deschenes, 2006. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," Working Papers 2006.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005.
"Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
- Deschenes, Olivier & Greenstone, Michael, 2006.
"The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather,"
- Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
- World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.
- Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan Barreca, 2009.
"The Long-Term Economic Impact of In Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria,"
0905, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
- Alan I. Barreca, 2010. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of In Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 865-892.
- K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity Of Indian Agriculture," Development Economics Working Papers 22939, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Skoufias, Emmanuel & Vinha, Katja & Conroy, Hector V., 2011. "The impacts of climate variability on welfare in rural Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5555, The World Bank.
- Van Butsic & Ellen Hanak & Robert G. Valletta, 2008. "Climate change and asset prices: hedonic estimates for North American ski resorts," Working Paper Series 2008-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Olen, Beau & Wu, JunJie & Langpap, Christian, 2012. "Crop-specific Irrigation Choices for Major Crops on the West Coast: Water Scarcity and Climatic Determinants," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124843, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Wang, Sun Ling & Ball, V. Eldon & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Plastina, Alejandro S., 2012. "Benefits of Public R&D in U.S. Agriculture: Spill-Ins, Extension, and Roads," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126368, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2009. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Working Papers 15558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- K S Kavi Kumar, 2010. "Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture Do Spatial Effects Matter?," Working Papers id:2408, eSocialSciences.
- Eaves, James & Eaves, Stephen, 2007. "Renewable corn-ethanol and energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5958-5963, November.
- Van Butsic & Ellen Hanak & Rob Valletta, 2008. "Regional variation in the potential economic effects of climate change," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Aug 22.
- Cai, Yongxia & McCarl, Bruce A., 2009. "Climate Change and Texas Water Planning: an Economic Analysis of Inter-basin Water Transfers," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49933, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Botzen, W.J.W. & Bouwer, L.M. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2010. "Climate change and hailstorm damage: Empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 341-362, August.
- Mutuc, Maria Erlinda M. & Hudson, Darren & Reeves, Jeanne M., 2012. "The Effects of Uniform Climate Change on International Cotton Prices and Production," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126362, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.