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Assessing the External Demand of the Czech Economy: Nowcasting Foreign GDP Using Bridge Equations

Author

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  • Tomas Adam
  • Filip Novotny

Abstract

We propose an approach to nowcasting foreign GDP growth rates for the Czech economy. For presentational purposes, we focus on three major trading partners: Germany, Slovakia and France. We opt for a simple method which is very general and which has proved successful in the literature: the method based on bridge equation models. A battery of models is evaluated based on a pseudo-real-time forecasting exercise. The results for Germany and France suggest that the models are more successful at backcasting, nowcasting and forecasting than the naive random walk benchmark model. At the same time, the various models considered are more or less successful depending on the forecast horizon. On the other hand, the results for Slovakia are less convincing, possibly due to the stability of the GDP growth rate over the evaluation period and the weak relationship between GDP growth rates and monthly indicators in the training sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Adam & Filip Novotny, 2018. "Assessing the External Demand of the Czech Economy: Nowcasting Foreign GDP Using Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018/18, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/18
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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2018_18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Adam & Ondrej Michalek & Ales Michl & Eva Slezakova, 2021. "The Rushin Index: A Weekly Indicator of Czech Economic Activity," Working Papers 2021/4, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian model averaging; bridge equations; nowcasting; short-term forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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