Do Financial Variables Help Predict Macroeconomic Environment? The Case of the Czech Republic
AbstractIn this paper, we 1) examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and 2) evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature, such as the share of liquid assets in the banking industry and the loan loss provision rate. Our results suggest that financial variables have a systematic and statistically significant effect on macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of forecast evaluation, financial variables in general seem to improve the forecast of macroeconomic variables, but the predictive performance of individual financial variables varies over time, in particular during the 2008â€“2009 crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2010/06.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
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Forecasting; macroeconomic and financial linkages; vector autoregressions.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-02-26 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-02-26 (Transition Economics)
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