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Cyclical and causal patterns of inflation and GDP growth

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Author Info
Mahmood Arai
Mats Kinnwall
Peter Skogman Thoursie

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Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth, dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth are estimated. No evidence is found supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterized by positive oil-price shocks.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 15 (August)
Pages: 1705-1715
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1705-1715

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  3. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
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  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Wansbeek, Tom & Kapteyn, Arie, 1989. "Estimation of the error-components model with incomplete panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 341-361, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
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    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
  14. Javier Andres & Ignacio Hernando, 1997. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Papers 6062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Alexandru Minea & Christophe Rault & Patrick Villieu, 2008. "Further Theoretical and Empirical Evidence on Money to Growth Relation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp909, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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