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Cyclical and causal patterns of inflation and GDP growth

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Author Info
Mahmood Arai
Mats Kinnwall
Peter Skogman Thoursie

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Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth, dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth are estimated. No evidence is found supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterized by positive oil-price shocks.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 15 (August)
Pages: 1705-1715
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1705-1715

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers 07, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  4. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  8. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Javier Andres & Ignacio Hernando, 1997. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Papers 6062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1987. "Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey," Working papers 453, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  1. Alexandru Minea & Christophe Rault & Patrick Villieu, 2008. "Further Theoretical and Empirical Evidence on Money to Growth Relation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp909, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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