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Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth

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Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth we estimate dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth. We find no evidence supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterised by positive oil-price shocks.

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  • Arai, Mahmood & Kinnwall, Mats & Skogman Thoursie, Peter, 2002. "Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2002_0005
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Further theoretical and empirical evidence on money to growth relation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(21), pages 1-7.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:21:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:18:y:2012:i:1:p:53-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP GROWTH; Inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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