IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/sunrpe/2002_0005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth we estimate dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth. We find no evidence supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterised by positive oil-price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Arai, Mahmood & Kinnwall, Mats & Skogman Thoursie, Peter, 2002. "Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2002_0005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.ne.su.se/paper/wp02_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-1399, November.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    5. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    6. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth (1992)," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, March.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    9. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1990. "Why does money affect output? A survey," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 779-835, Elsevier.
    11. Wansbeek, Tom & Kapteyn, Arie, 1989. "Estimation of the error-components model with incomplete panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 341-361, July.
    12. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    13. Delano S Villanueva & Roberto S Mariano & Diwa C Guinigundo & Abbas Mirakhor, 2023. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Growth Theory and Practice, chapter 2, pages 10-43, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    15. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Further theoretical and empirical evidence on money to growth relation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(21), pages 1-7.
    2. Anuar Sanusi & Faurani Santi Singagerda & Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani, 2021. "World Oil Price Shocks in Macroeconomic ASEAN +3 Countries: Measurement of Risk Management and Decision-making a Linear Dynamic Panel Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 75-83.
    3. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:4:p:399-423 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ming-Chih Lee & Wan-Hsiu Cheng, 2007. "Correlated jumps in crude oil and gasoline during the Gulf War," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 903-913.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:21:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aamir Aijaz Syed, 2021. "The Asymmetric Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Industrial Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of India, China and Pakistan Via the NARDL Approach," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(1), pages 77-97, March.
    7. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Dobson & Carlyn Ramlogan & Eric Strobl, 2006. "Why Do Rates Of Β‐Convergence Differ? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 153-173, May.
    2. Li, Hongbin & Yang, Zheyu & Yao, Xianguo & Zhang, Haifeng & Zhang, Junsen, 2012. "Entrepreneurship, private economy and growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 948-961.
    3. Sumarto, Sudarno & De Silva, Indunil, 2014. "Being Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Dynamics of Indonesian Subnational Growth and Poverty," MPRA Paper 57824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    5. Rajesh Sharma, 2018. "Health and economic growth: Evidence from dynamic panel data of 143 years," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, October.
    6. Indunil De Silva & Sudarno Sumarto, 2015. "Dynamics Of Growth, Poverty And Human Capital: Evidence From Indonesian Sub-National Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 1-33, June.
    7. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    8. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Persson, Joakim, 1999. "Demographic and Per Capita Income Dynamics: A Convergence Study on Demographics, Human Capital, and Per Capita Income for the US States," Working Paper Series 156, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Lee, Angela Y. & Aaker, Jennifer L., 2006. "A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions," Research Papers 1836r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    12. Soukiazis, Elias & Antunes, Micaela, 2011. "Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1363-1373, May.
    13. Vu, Khuong M & Asongu, Simplice, 2020. "Backwardness advantage and economic growth in the information age: A cross-country empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    15. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Analysis of exchange-rate regime effect on growth: theoretical channels and empirical evidence with panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Hauk, William R., 2017. "Endogeneity bias and growth regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 143-161.
    17. Andres, Javier & Hernando, Ignacio & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2004. "The role of the financial system in the growth-inflation link: the OECD experience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 941-961, November.
    18. Harald Badinger & Werner Muller & Gabriele Tondl, 2004. "Regional Convergence in the European Union, 1985- 1999: A Spatial Dynamic Panel Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 241-253.
    19. Arshad Ali Bhatti & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2013. "Is the Growth Effect of Financial Development Conditional on Technological Innovation?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 188, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    20. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP GROWTH; Inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2002_0005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Jensen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/neisuse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.