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Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Peru

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  • Humala, Alberto

    (Central Reserve Bank of Peru)

  • Rodríguez, Gabriel

    ()
    (Central Reserve Bank of Peru and Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

Flexible exchange rate experience in Peru has been accompanied by frequent official interventions in the form of foreign exchange purchases or sales. Monetary authority pursues reducing excess volatility in the exchange rate through its direct intervention. However, in recent years, this intervention has concentrated in US dollars purchases, apparently signaling a bias towards defending a given exchange rate level (not necessarily fixed). For the period 1994 - 2007, this document assesses consistency of the empirical evidence with the goal of reducing exchange rate volatility. Thus, it uses univariate and multivariate time series models subject to stochastic shifts to study currency pressures. Results suggest consistency with the reduced-volatility goal. Nonetheless, in line with other studies, factors such as the foreign exchange gap with respect to its trend also induce foreign exchange intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2009-008.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2009-008

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Keywords: Foreign Exchange Intervention; Exchange Rate Volatility; Markov-Switching Models.;

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References

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  1. BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien & LECOURT, Christelle, . "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1705, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Luis Carranza & Juan M. Cayo & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Performance in Peru: A Firm Level Analysis," Faculty Working Papers 12/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  4. Hoshikawa, Takeshi, 2008. "The effect of intervention frequency on the foreign exchange market: The Japanese experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 547-559, June.
  5. Brunetti, Celso & Scotti, Chiara & Mariano, Roberto S. & Tan, Augustine H.H., 2008. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 104-128, June.
  6. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? the Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention, GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 7, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  9. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, 04.
  10. Sollis, Robert, 2008. "U.S. dollar real exchange rates: Nonlinearity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 516-528, June.
  11. Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530.
  12. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2003. "Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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Cited by:
  1. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
  2. Broto, Carmen, 2013. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 224-240.
  3. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, 09.
  4. Paul Castillo & Luis Maertens Odria & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "Does The Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Prices Change When Inflation Targeting Is Adopted? The Peruvian Case Study Between 1994 And 2007," Documentos de Trabajo 2011-314, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  5. Mauricio Lopera Castaño & Ramón Javier Mesa Callejas & Sergio Iván Restrepo Ochoa & Charle Augusto Londoño Henao, 2013. "Modelando el esquema de intervenciones del tipo de cambio para Colombia. una aplicación empírica de la técnica de regresión del cuantil bajo redes neu," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.

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