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Holidays, weekends and range-based volatility

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  • Díaz-Mendoza, Ana-Carmen
  • Pardo, Angel

Abstract

This study analyses the effect of non-trading periods on the forecasting ability of S&P500 index range-based volatility models. We find that volatility significantly diminishes on the first trading day after holidays and weekends, but not after long weekends. Our findings indicate that models that include autoregressive terms that interact with dummies that allow us to capture changes in volatility levels after interrupting periods provide greater explanatory power than simple autoregressive models. Therefore, the shorter the length of the non-trading periods between two trading days, the higher the overestimation of the volatility if this effect is not considered in volatility forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Díaz-Mendoza, Ana-Carmen & Pardo, Angel, 2020. "Holidays, weekends and range-based volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819303110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.101124
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    Cited by:

    1. Jayawardena, Nirodha I. & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Su, Jen-Je, 2020. "Volatility forecasting using related markets’ information for the Tokyo stock exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 143-158.
    2. Vladimir Pyrlik & Pavel Elizarov & Aleksandra Leonova, 2021. "Forecasting Realized Volatility Using Machine Learning and Mixed-Frequency Data (the Case of the Russian Stock Market)," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp713, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Holiday effect; Weekend effect; Range-volatility estimators; Non-trading periods; Volatility forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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