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Liquidity and Exchange Rates - An Empirical Investigation

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  • Engel, Charles
  • Wu, Steve Pak Yeung

Abstract

We find strong empirical evidence that economic fundamentals can well account for nominal exchange rate movements. The important innovation is that we include the liquidity yield on government bonds as an explanatory variable. We find impressive evidence that changes in the liquidity yield are significant in explaining exchange rate changes for all of the G10 countries. Moreover, after controlling for liquidity yields, traditional determinants of exchange rates - adjustment toward purchasing power parity and monetary shocks - are also found to be economically and statistically significant. We show how these relationships arise out of a canonical two-country New Keynesian model with liquidity returns. Additionally, we find a role for sovereign default risk and currency swap market frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2018. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates - An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13401
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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