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Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts

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Author Info

  • Lees, Kirdan
  • Matheson, Troy
  • Smith, Christie

Abstract

We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical VAR model based on the in-sample fit over the majority of New Zealand's inflation-targeting period. We evaluate the real-time out-of-sample forecasting performance of the DSGE-VAR model, and show that the forecasts from the DSGE-VAR are competitive with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's published, judgmentally-adjusted forecasts. The Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior also provides a competitive forecasting performance, and generally, with a few exceptions, out-performs both the DSGE-VAR and the Reserve Bank's own forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 512-528

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:2:p:512-528

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: DSGE Vector autoregression models Macroeconomic forecasting Open economy Bayesian methods;

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References

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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  2. Olivier Basdevant & Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli, 2004. "Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  4. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  5. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  7. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
  8. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in a small open-economy model under inflation targeting: some evidence from Chile," Staff Reports 329, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ana Maria Santacreu, 2005. "Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
  13. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  14. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 35-50.
  15. Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 261-275.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sean Langcake & Tim Robinson, 2013. "An Empirical BVAR-DSGE Model of the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  3. Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of an Estimated Medium Run Model," Ruhr Economic Papers 0301, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  4. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2013. "Predictive likelihood comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR models," Working Paper Series 1536, European Central Bank.
  5. Tim Robinson, 2013. "Estimating and Identifying Empirical BVAR-DSGE Models for Small Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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