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Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?

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Abstract

I develop a structural general equilibrium model and estimate it for New Zealand using Bayesian techniques. The estimated model considers a monetary policy regime where the central bank targets overall inflation but is also concerned about output, exchange rate movements, and interest rate smoothing. Taking the posterior mean of the estimated parameters as representing the characteristics of the New Zealand economy, I compare the consequences that two alternative reaction functions have on the central bank's loss, for different specifications of its preferences. I obtain conditions under which the monetary authority should respond directly to non-tradable inflation instead of overall inflation. In particular, if preferences are relatively biased towards inflation stabilization, responding directly to overall inflation results in better macroeconomic outcomes. If instead the central bank places relatively more weight on output stabilization, responding directly to non-traded inflation is a better strategy.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2005/04.

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Length: 53 p.
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2005/04

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Cited by:
  1. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open Economy Dsge-Var Forecasting And Policy Analysis: Head To Head With The Rbnz Published Forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2007-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Matheson, Troy, 2010. "Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 906-920, September.
  3. Regassa Senbeta S., 2011. "A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE model for a foreign exchange constrained economy," Working Papers 2011004, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  4. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2012. "Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies," Working Papers 307, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  5. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy & Smith, Christie, 2011. "Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 512-528.
  6. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "Understanding the New Zealand current account: A structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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