Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy

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Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy

Author Info

Nargis Bharucha (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Christopher Kent (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the merits of aggregate inflation targeting compared with non-traded inflation targeting using a model of a small open economy producing traded and non-traded goods. An important innovation of our approach is that we isolate the effects of exchange rate, supply and demand shocks by analysing the conditional variance of macroeconomic variables. We show that monetary policy should be more activist in response to exchange rate shocks for a flexible aggregate inflation target than for a flexible non-traded inflation target. However, in response to demand and supply shocks monetary policy is more activist for a flexible non-traded inflation target. The result is robust to the inclusion of forward-looking expectations, gradual exchange rate pass-through, and discretionary policy. In order to avoid excessive volatility in product and financial markets, it may be preferable to target inflation over a medium-term horizon.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp9807.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9807

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

John B. Taylor, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," NBER Reprints 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other versions:
- Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gordon de Brouwer & Luci Ellis, 1998. "Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9803, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," Papers 521, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Bernanke, Ben S & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
Jacqueline Dwyer & Christine Groeger, 1994. "Resource Flows to the Traded Goods Sector," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9401, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
David Gruen & John Romalis & Naveen Chandra, 1997. "The Lags of Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9702, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars E O Svensson, . "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
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Dwyer, Jacqueline & Kent, Christopher & Pease, Andrew, 1994. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Testing the Small Country Assumption for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 408-23, December.
Jacqueline Dwyer & Ricky Lam, 1994. "Explaining Import Price Inflation: A Recent History of Second Stage Pass-through," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9407, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Ana Maria Santacreu, 2005. "Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
Leitemo,K. & Roisland,O., 1999. "Choosing a monetary policy regime : effects on the traded and non-traded sectors," Memorandum 04/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 127, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Guy Debelle & Jenny Wilkinson, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Lessons from an Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 111, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Chris Ryan & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-06, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
Guy Debelle & Jenny Wilkinson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Some Lessons from an Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
Richard Dennis, 2000. "Steps toward identifying central bank policy preferences," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]

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