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Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation Targeting

In: Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

This paper provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with a particular emphasis on analytical issues and the recent experience of developing countries. After presenting a formal framework, it discusses basic requirements for inflation targeting and how such a regime differs from money and exchange rate targeting regimes. The operational framework of inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor, the target horizon, forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices) is then discussed. Next, recent experiences with inflation targets are examined. The last part of the paper focuses on some current research issues in the literature, including the role of nonlinearities regarding both policy preferences and the slope of the output-inflation tradeoff.), uncertainty (about behavioral parameters and transmission lags), and the treatment of credibility in empirical models of inflation. New evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve is also provided for six developing countries.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, , chapter 3, pages 079-170, 2002.

This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v05c03pp079-170.

Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v05c03pp079-170

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  1. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  4. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
  6. Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
  8. Guy Meredith & Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
  10. Stephen Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output volatility? An International Comparison of Policy Maker's Preferences and Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 69, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Schellekens, P. & Chadha, J.S., 1999. "Monetary Policy Loss Functions: Two Cheers for the Quadratic," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9920, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 207-235, June.
  13. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoeberichts, M.M. & Schaling, E., 1998. "A Theory of Central Bank Accountability," Discussion Paper 1998-103, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Masson, Paul R, 1999. "Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 70-84, February.
  15. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981.
  16. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn Kydland, 1999. "The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 23-32.
  18. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Jensen, H., 1996. "Inflation targets and contracts with uncertain central banker preferences," Discussion Paper 1996-93, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  19. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
  20. Christian H. Beddies, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Public Finances: Inflation Targets in a New Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 4.
  21. Haan, Jakob de & Kooi, Willem J., 2000. "Does central bank independence really matter?: New evidence for developing countries using a new indicator," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 643-664, April.
  22. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Erica L. Groshen, 2000. "Understanding Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and 'Fear of Floating'," Studies in Economics 0605, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 16654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2008. "Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 94, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  4. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov & Andrew K. Rose, 2007. "Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1163-1176, 08.
  5. Jeffery D. Amato & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market and Transition Economies: Lessons after a Decade," Working Papers 132001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Constraints on the Design and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Oil Economies: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 08/142, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  9. Levin, Andrew T. & Natalucci, Fabio M. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 0383, European Central Bank.
  10. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol?
    [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]
    ," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008.
  11. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Englama, Abwaku, 2009. "Is Nigeria Ready for Inflation Targeting?," MPRA Paper 14870, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Apr 2009.
  12. Gongpil Choi, 2003. "The Choice of Monetary Regime for Post-Crisis Asia. The Case of South Korea," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1137-1160.
  13. Rageh, Rania, 2010. "Interest rate rule for the conduct of monetary policy: analysis for Egypt (1997:2007)," MPRA Paper 26639, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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