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Is Nigeria Ready for Inflation Targeting?

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  • Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano
  • Englama, Abwaku

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether Nigeria is ready to adopt inflation targeting (IT), a monetary policy framework that several emerging markets have adopted over the last one decade. The paper reviewed literature on selected conditions for successful implementation of IT and then focused on whether one specific precondition of an empirically stable monetary transmission mechanism is tenable. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was applied using select monetary policy and other macroeconomic variables to explore the various channels using the Granger causality tests, impulse responses, and variance decompositions. Results showed that inflation in Nigeria is impassive to monetary transmission variables in the model. Specifically, weak link between prices and credit and interest rate channels were established. However, evidence of strong inverse link between exchange rate and prices was found in the model. This suggests exchange rate pass-through on the level of prices in the economy. The paper, therefore, recommends the pursuance of IT lite in Nigeria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14870.

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Date of creation: 03 Jan 2009
Date of revision: 26 Apr 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14870

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Keywords: Inflation targeting; vector autoregressive model; Granger causality test; monetary transmission mechanism; exchange rate pass-through;

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References

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  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: an Introduction to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 124, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, November.
  4. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
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  6. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 7618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1999. "Inflation Targeting in Korea," IMF Working Papers 99/7, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Corbo, Vittorio & Landerretche, Oscar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 343-68, October.
  11. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 07/133, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2008. "Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 293-317, April.
  13. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo 230, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  14. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," ZEI Working Papers B 01-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  15. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  16. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
  18. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
  19. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Javier Reyes, 2007. "Exchange Rate Passthrough Effects and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: What is the Relationship?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 538-559, 08.
  21. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  22. Frederic S Mishkin & Miguel A Savastano, 2002. "Monetary Policy Strategies For Emerging Market Countries: Lessons From Latin America," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2-3), pages 45-82, September.
  23. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  24. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
  25. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346.
  26. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
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