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Is Nigeria Ready for Inflation Targeting?

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Author Info
Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano
Englama, Abwaku

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Abstract

This paper evaluates whether Nigeria is ready to adopt inflation targeting (IT), a monetary policy framework that several emerging markets have adopted over the last one decade. The paper reviewed literature on selected conditions for successful implementation of IT and then focused on whether one specific precondition of an empirically stable monetary transmission mechanism is tenable. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was applied using select monetary policy and other macroeconomic variables to explore the various channels using the Granger causality tests, impulse responses, and variance decompositions. Results showed that inflation in Nigeria is impassive to monetary transmission variables in the model. Specifically, weak link between prices and credit and interest rate channels were established. However, evidence of strong inverse link between exchange rate and prices was found in the model. This suggests exchange rate pass-through on the level of prices in the economy. The paper, therefore, recommends the pursuance of IT lite in Nigeria.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14870.

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Date of creation: 03 Jan 2009
Date of revision: 26 Apr 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14870

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation targeting; vector autoregressive model; Granger causality test; monetary transmission mechanism; exchange rate pass-through.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vittorio Corbo & Oscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," Working Papers 51, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1999. "Inflation Targeting in Korea - An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 99/7, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  4. Andreas Billmeier & Daehaeng Kim & Era Dabla-Norris & V. Kramarenko & Mayra Rebecca Zermeno Livas, 2007. "Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 07/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 105, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jrgen von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 127-148. [Downloadable!]
  7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2000. "Monetary policy under flexible exchange rates - an introduction to inflation targeting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2511, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 6965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520. [Downloadable!]
  13. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Katerina Smídková & Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports," IMF Working Papers 08/234, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-29.

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