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Inflation Targeting and Fear of Floating in Brazil, Mexico and South Korea

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  • Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira Junior

    (Fundação João Pinheiro)

Abstract

We present evidence on Fear of Floating (FF) practices before and after the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT) for three emerging countries that faced important exchange rate crises in the 1990’s (Brazil, Mexico and South Korea). We start using the methodologies proposed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002) and Ball and Reyes (2008), and check the probabilities of observing small monthly exchange rate changes, combined with large movements in policy instruments (international reserves and interest rates), which should indicate some degree of exchange rate targeting. This initial exercise suggests a progress towards greater exchange rate flexibility after IT. We then use a VAR model to analyse the monetary policy response to exchange rate and inflation shocks, and detect a drastic reduction in direct intervention in the foreign exchange market after IT, accompanied by a stronger response to inflation. These findings are consistent with the IT framework, and suggest a reduced role for FF.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 195_209

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Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:10:y:2009:i:2:195-209

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation Targeting; Fear of Floating;

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References

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  1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Ball, Christopher P. & Reyes, Javier, 2008. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise? A broader perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 308-326, March.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  5. Olivier Jeanne & Robert P. Flood, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 00/159, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christopher P. Ball & Javier Reyes, 2004. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise: the case of Mexico," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 49-69.
  8. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
  10. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
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