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Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

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  • Vilela Vieira, Flávio
  • Brito, Marcio Holland de

Abstract

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floatingexchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate(domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Grangercausality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. Theempirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and thatflexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to itsown specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according toinflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lackof a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is,from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange ratedynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by theprobability of default.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 210.

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Date of creation: 16 Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:210

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-50, May.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin & Miguel A. Savastano, 2000. "Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America," NBER Working Papers 7617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 2011-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  6. Andrés VELASCO, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policies For Developing Countries: What Have We Learned? What Do We Still Not Know?," G-24 Discussion Papers, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 5, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003. "Choosing (and reneging on) exchange rate regimes," NBER Working Papers 9809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
  11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  12. Michele Polline Veríssimo & Márcio Holland de Brito, 2004. "Liberalização Da Conta De Capital E Fluxos De Portfólio Para O Brasil No Período Recente," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of G 069, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  13. Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Aasim M. Husain, 2004. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Occasional Papers, International Monetary Fund 229, International Monetary Fund.
  14. repec:rus:hseeco:123906 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," Business School Working Papers, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella exchangerates, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  16. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2003. "Twin Fallacies About Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 9670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  21. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Cecilia Maya & Karoll Gómez, 2008. "What Exactly is "Bad News" in Foreign Exchange Markets? Evidence from Latin American Markets," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 161-183.

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