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Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Masson, Paul R

Abstract

A model emphasizing the tradeoff between the costs of changes of domestic interest rates and exchange rate stability is used to assess the role of credibility and reputational factors in the lead-up to the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. Devaluation expectations are decomposed into the probability that the authorities do not truly put a high weight on exchange rate stability and the probability that an exogenous shock will make a devaluation the preferred policy. Estimates indicate that prior to the peso collapse there was no significant increase in devaluation fears and no perceived shift in the authorities' policy preferences. But the increase in the differential that occurred after the devaluation may have resulted from such a shift.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 31 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 70-84

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:31:y:1999:i:1:p:70-84

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Default, Electoral Uncertainty and the Choice of Exchange Regime," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 13, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  2. G J Bratsiotis & W Robinson, 2002. "Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 23, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrices(SAMs) and CGE Modeling:Using Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Models for Assessing Poverty Impact of Structural Adjustment Policies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-463, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  4. Vladimir Klyuev, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/140, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty Reduction in General Equilibrium: The Role of Labor Market Structure," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-462, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2002. "Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 3, pages 079-170 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seo, Jeonghee, 2003. "Multiple equilibria and currency crisis: evidence for Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 681-696, October.
  8. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 89-112.
  9. Joseph A. Whitt, Jr., 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 1-20.
  10. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne, 2004. "Economic fundamentals and self-fulfilling crises: further evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 595-613, June.
  11. Khan, haider, 2008. "Analyzing Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalization Policies in CGE Models: Theory and Some Policy Experiments in Agricultural and Non-agricultural Sectors in South Asia," MPRA Paper 7609, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2008.
  12. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 1999. "Reflections on the South African rand crisis of 1996 and policy consequences," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1999-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, . "Credibility and Duration in Target Zones: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2003-19, FEDEA.

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