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Inflation Targets and Contracts with Uncertain Central Banker Preferences

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Author Info
Beetsma, Roel
Jensen, Henrik

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Abstract

Within a standard model of monetary delegation we show that the optimal linear inflation contract performs strictly better than the optimal inflation target when there is uncertainty about the central banker’s preferences. The optimal combination of a contract and a target performs best, and eliminates the inflation bias and any variability not associated with supply shocks. Variability due to shocks is enhanced by uncertain central banker preferences however, which suggests the need for alternative incentive mechanisms. Quadratic contracts are shown to partly overcome the problem. Still, the advantages of delegation may be dominated by the ‘excess variability’ due to shocks.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1562.

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Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1562

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation Contracts; Inflation Targets; Monetary delegration; Uncertainty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Bernhard Winkler, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 26, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de España Working Papers 0106, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Manfred Neumann, 2002. "Transparency in monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 353-365, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Enrico Marchetti, 2008. "Linear Contracts, Common Agency and Central Bank Preference Uncertainty," Working Papers 115, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Meixing Dai & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2009. "Accountability and Transparency about Central Bank Preferences for Model Robustness," Working Papers of BETA 2009-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Diana N. Weymark, 2000. "Inflation, Income Redistribution, and Optimal Central Bank Independence," Working Papers 0102, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
  7. Xavier Debrun & Francesca Castellani, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and the Design of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Working Papers 01/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2004. "How Should Large and Small Countries Be Represented in a Currency Union?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Edward Kutsoati, 2000. "Debt-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Targeting," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0009, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2002. "Delegation and Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy: More Bad News for Rogoff's Delegation Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 153-174, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ronald A. Ratti & Sang-Kun Bae, 2004. "Inflation Contracts, Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting, and Uncertain Central Bank Preferences," Working Papers 0422, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 21 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "Unabhängigkeit und Verantwortlichkeit der Europäischen Zentralbank," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-65, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "Central Banker Contracts, Incomplete Information, and Monetary Policy Surprises: In Search of a Selfish Central Banker?," Working papers 2002-29, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Berthold Herrendorf & Manfred J.M. Neumann, 2003. "The Political Economy of Inflation, Labour Market Distortions and Central Bank Independence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 43-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Diana N. Weymark, 2005. "Inflation, Government Transfers, and Optimal Central Bank Independence," Working Papers 0502, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  16. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Schaling, E. & Hoeberichts, M. & Eijffinger, S., 1998. "Incentive contracts for central bankers under uncertainty: Walsh-Svensson non-equivalence revisited," Discussion Paper 11, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  18. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts & Sylvester Eijffinger, . "Incentive schemes for central bankers under uncertainty: inflation targets versus contracts," Bank of England working papers 88, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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