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Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?

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  • Dimpfl, Thomas
  • Jank, Stephan

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices' realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high searches follow high volatility, and high volatility follows high searches. Using the latter feedback effect to predict volatility we find that search queries contain additional information about market volatility. They help to improve volatility forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample as well as for different forecasting horizons. Search queries are particularly useful to predict volatility in high-volatility phases. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences in its series University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 18.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuewef:18

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Keywords: realized volatility; forecasting; investor behavior; noise trader; search engine data;

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Cited by:
  1. Marcelo Bianconi & Xiaxin Hua & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Determinants of Systemic Risk and Information Dissemination," Working Paper Series 67_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Matija Pi\v{s}korec & Nino Antulov-Fantulin & Petra Kralj Novak & Igor Mozeti\v{c} & Miha Gr\v{c}ar & Irena Vodenska & Tomislav \v{S}muc, 2014. "News Cohesiveness: an Indicator of Systemic Risk in Financial Markets," Papers 1402.3483, arXiv.org.
  3. Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga & Pedro Latoeiro, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws130605, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  4. Amal Aouadi & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Investor Following and Volatility: A GARCH Approach," Working Papers 2014-286, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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