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Modelling and Forecasting with Financial Duration Data Using Non-linear Model

Author

Listed:
  • Pooi AH-HIN

    (Department of Financial Mathematics and Statistics, Sunway University Business School, Malaysia)

  • Ng KOK-HAUR

    (Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Malaya, Malaysia)

  • Soo HUEI-CHING

    (School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Malaysia)

Abstract

The class of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models plays an important role in modelling the duration data in economics and finance. This paper presents a non-linear model to allow the first four moments of the duration to depend nonlinearly on past information variables. Theoretically the model is more general than the linear ACD model. The proposed model is fitted to the data given by the 3534 transaction durations of IBM stock on five consecutive trading days. The fitted model is found to be comparable to the Weibull ACD model in terms of the in-sample and out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors and mean absolute forecast deviations. In addition, the Diebold-Mariano test shows that there are no significant differences in forecast ability for all models.

Suggested Citation

  • Pooi AH-HIN & Ng KOK-HAUR & Soo HUEI-CHING, 2016. "Modelling and Forecasting with Financial Duration Data Using Non-linear Model," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(2), pages 79-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:cys:ecocyb:v:50:y:2016:i:2:p:79-92
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregressive conditional duration; multivariate quadratic-normal distribution; nonlinear dependence structure; duration model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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