NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting
AbstractIn this paper we present several new Â¯ndings on the NoVaS transformation approach for volatility forecasting introduced by Politis (2003a,b, 2007). In particular: (a) we present a new method for accurate volatility forecasting using NoVaS ; (b) we introduce a \time- varying" version of NoVaS and show that the NoVaS methodology is applicable in situations where (global) stationarity for returns fails such as the cases of local stationarity and/or structural breaks and/or model uncertainty; (c) we conduct an extensive simulation study on the forecasting ability of the NoVaS approach under a variety of realistic data generating processes (DGP); and (d) we illustrate the forecasting ability of NoVaS on a number of real datasets and compare it to realized and range-based volatility measures. Our empirical results show that the NoVaS -based forecasts lead to a much `tighter' distribution of the forecasting performance measure. Perhaps our most remarkable Â¯nding is the robustness of the NoVaS forecasts in the context of structural breaks and/or other non-stationarities of the underlying data. Also striking is that forecasts based on NoVaS invariably outperform those based on the benchmark GARCH(1,1) even when the true DGP is GARCH(1,1) when the sample size is moderately large, e.g. 350 daily observations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt982208kx.
Date of creation: 08 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
Phone: (858) 534-3383
Fax: (858) 534-7040
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucsdecon/
More information through EDIRC
ARCH; forecasting; GARCH; local stationarity; robustness; structural breaks; volatility;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Liang Peng, 2003. "Least absolute deviations estimation for ARCH and GARCH models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 967-975, December.
- Nour Meddahi, 2001.
"An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- MEDDAHI, Nour, 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," Cahiers de recherche 2001-29, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Meddahi, N., 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," Cahiers de recherche 2001-29, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Piotr Fryzlewicz & Theofanis Sapatinas & Suhasini Subba Rao, 2006. "A Haar--Fisz technique for locally stationary volatility estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(3), pages 687-704, September.
- Politis, Dimitris N., 2003. "Model-Free Volatility Prediction," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0648834b, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2004.
"Analytical Evaluation Of Volatility Forecasts,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1079-1110, November.
- Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
- Dimitris N. Politis, 2004. "A Heavy-Tailed Distribution for ARCH Residuals with Application to Volatility Prediction," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 5(2), pages 283-298, November.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Politis, Dimitris N., 2004. "A heavy-tailed distribution for ARCH residuals with application to volatility prediction," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7r89639x, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
- Francq, Christian & ZakoIÂ¨an, Jean-Michel, 2005. "The L2-structures of standard and switching-regime GARCH models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(9), pages 1557-1582, September.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.