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La importancia de la histéresis en las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países de la UEM

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Author Info

  • Buisan, Ana

    (Banco de España)

  • Caballero, Juan C.

    (Banco de España)

  • Campa, Jose M.

    ()
    (IESE Business School)

  • Jimenez, Noelia

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

En este trabajo se pretende comprobar la posible existencia de histéresis en la oferta de exportaciones de manufacturas en algunos países de la zona del euro, es decir, se analiza si los movimientos transitorios del tipo de cambio tienen un impacto permanente sobre las exportaciones. La presencia de costes irrecuperables en la entrada y salida del mercado a los que se enfrentan los productores puede justificar la existencia de histéresis en el comercio, ya que las empresas exportadoras tomarían en consideración el tipo de cambio futuro como una variable adicional a la hora de decidir si se entra o no en el mercado, afectando de esta forma al volumen de exportación agregado. Así, el trabajo presenta una estimación de un modelo de oferta y demanda de exportaciones de manufacturas para la mayoría de los países de la zona euro, donde la oferta toma en cuenta la evolución futura del tipo de cambio a partir de la estimación secuencial de sus dos primeros momentos. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, el tipo de cambio esperado no es, en la mayor parte de los casos, una variable explicativa de la evolución de la oferta de exportaciones. De este modo, en contra de la evidencia disponible con datos de empresas, el análisis macroeconómico efectuado no detecta efectos de histéresis significativos en la oferta de exportaciones.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/561.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0561

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Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
Web page: http://www.iese.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: Histéresis; tipo de cambio; exportaciones; unión monetaria; zona euro;

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References

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  1. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "How Big Should Government Be?," NBER Working Papers 5868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan J. Dolado & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2005. "Dual employment protection legislation: a framework for analysis," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0510, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "The fiscal theory of the price level: a narrow theory for non-fiat money," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0501, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Angel de la Fuente & Juan Francisco Jimeno, 2004. "The private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 635.04, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  4. Agustín Maravall, 2005. "An application of the Tramo Seats automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0524, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Ana Del-Rí­o & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Bank of England working papers 262, Bank of England.
  6. Luis J. �lvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2010. "Price-setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 105-121.
  7. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Do decreasing hazard functions for price changes make any sense?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0508, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British household panel survey," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0511, Banco de Espa�a.

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