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La importancia de la histéresis en las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países de la UEM

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Author Info

  • Buisan, Ana

    (Banco de España)

  • Caballero, Juan C.

    (Banco de España)

  • Campa, Jose M.

    ()
    (IESE Business School)

  • Jimenez, Noelia

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

En este trabajo se pretende comprobar la posible existencia de histéresis en la oferta de exportaciones de manufacturas en algunos países de la zona del euro, es decir, se analiza si los movimientos transitorios del tipo de cambio tienen un impacto permanente sobre las exportaciones. La presencia de costes irrecuperables en la entrada y salida del mercado a los que se enfrentan los productores puede justificar la existencia de histéresis en el comercio, ya que las empresas exportadoras tomarían en consideración el tipo de cambio futuro como una variable adicional a la hora de decidir si se entra o no en el mercado, afectando de esta forma al volumen de exportación agregado. Así, el trabajo presenta una estimación de un modelo de oferta y demanda de exportaciones de manufacturas para la mayoría de los países de la zona euro, donde la oferta toma en cuenta la evolución futura del tipo de cambio a partir de la estimación secuencial de sus dos primeros momentos. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, el tipo de cambio esperado no es, en la mayor parte de los casos, una variable explicativa de la evolución de la oferta de exportaciones. De este modo, en contra de la evidencia disponible con datos de empresas, el análisis macroeconómico efectuado no detecta efectos de histéresis significativos en la oferta de exportaciones.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/561.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0561

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Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
Web page: http://www.iese.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: Histéresis; tipo de cambio; exportaciones; unión monetaria; zona euro;

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  1. Nielsen, Soren Feodor, 2000. "On simulated EM algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 267-292, June.
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Luis Eduardo Arango, 2000. "Podremos Sostener La Deuda Pública?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003330, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "How Big Should Government Be?," NBER Working Papers 5868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Tahmiscioglu, A Kamil, 2001. "Intertemporal Variation in Financial Constraints on Investment: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 153-65, April.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Ángel de la Fuente & Juan F. Jimeno, 2005. "The private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0509, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "The fiscal theory of the price level: a narrow theory for non-fiat money," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0501, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Dolado, Juan J. & Jansen, Marcel & Jimeno, Juan F., 2005. "Dual Employment Protection Legislation: A Framework for Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1564, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0512, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Álvarez, Luis J. & Burriel, Pablo & Hernando, Ignacio, 2005. "Do decreasing hazard functions for price changes make any sense?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0461, European Central Bank.
  6. Agustín Maravall, 2005. "An application of the Tramo Seats automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0524, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0527, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British household panel survey," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0511, Banco de Espa�a.

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