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The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

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Ana Del-Rí­o
Garry Young

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Abstract

Household indebtedness has risen sharply in recent years, with large increases in both secured and unsecured borrowing. In this paper, waves 5 and 10 of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for 1995 and 2000 are used to examine the determinants of participation in the unsecured debt market and the amount borrowed. Probit models for participation are estimated and age, income, positive financial prospects and housing tenure are found to be very significant and have the expected sign according to a life-cycle model for consumption. Regressions to explain the level of borrowing by individuals suggest that income is the main variable explaining crosssectional differences in unsecured debts. The increase in aggregate unsecured debt between 1995 and 2000 does not seem to be closely linked to changes in the determinants of debt market participation and has been mainly associated with the larger amounts borrowed by those with debts. Increases in income, better educational qualifications and improved prospects regarding the financial situation contributed to this result. The major part of the overall increase in unsecured debt is not explained by variables at the individual level, but is accounted for by common, unmodelled macroeconomic factors.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 263.

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  6. Donald Cox & Tullio Japelli, 1993. "The Effect Of Borrowing Constraints On Consumer Liabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 228, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  7. Davies, A J & Weber, G, 1991. "Credit and British consumers: some micro evidence," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 61-84, May.
  8. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints And Interest Rates Matter For Consumer Behavior? Evidence From Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Valles, 2004. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 400, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Juan J. Dolado & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2005. "Dual Employment Protection Legislation: A Framework for Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1564, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Banco de España Working Papers 0512, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  12. John Muellbauer & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumer credit conditions in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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