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Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana

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  • Deicy J. Cristiano

    ()

  • Manuel D. Hernández

    ()

  • José David Pulido

    ()

Abstract

La toma de decisiones de política económica requiere estimaciones del comportamiento de la actividad económica en tiempo real. Sin embargo, la información utilizada solo está disponible a nivel de indicadores de actividad y de encuestas de opinión, los cuales suelen tener distintas frecuencias y rezagos de publicación, además de choques idiosincráticos. En este trabajo se adaptan para la economía colombiana los esquemas de pronóstico de Camacho y Perez-Quiros (2009,2010) que producen estimaciones del crecimiento del PIB en tiempo real. El modelo de factores dinámicos adaptado involucra series de actividad de diferente frecuencia, disponibilidad y procedencia, empleadas con la información disponible en el momento de cada publicación. La evaluación de pronóstico sugiere que el modelo presenta un mejor desempeño frente a otros esquemas de referencia, y que la precisión de los pronósticos aumenta al incorporar el flujo de información en tiempo real de los indicadores de actividad.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 724.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:724

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Keywords: Crecimiento del producto; pronóstico en tiempo real; modelo de factores dinámicos. Classification JEL:C22; C53; E27.;

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