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Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

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  • Philipp Maier

Abstract

We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). Evaluating all models’ out-of-sample projections, we find that all the approaches can yield considerable improvements over naïve AR benchmarks. We also analyze pooling across forecasting methodologies. We find that the most accurate nowcast is given by a combination of a factor model and an indicator model. The most accurate forecast is given by a factor model. Overall, we conclude that these models, or combinations of these models, can yield improvements in terms of RMSE’s of up to 60 per cent over simple AR benchmarks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 11-11.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-11

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Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; International topics;

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Cited by:
  1. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009827, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Huang, Y-F., 2012. "Forecasting Chinese inflation and output: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 41933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Hostland & Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 13/256, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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