Modeling Data Revisions
AbstractA dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's  in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise, the model follows Jacobs & Van Norden's  so their gains are extended through the new assumptions. These assumptions represent the data release process more realistically under particular circumstances, and improve the overall identification of the model. An application to the year to year growth of the Colombian quarterly GDP reveals that preliminary growth reports under-estimate the true growth, and that measurement errors are predictable from the information available at the data release. The models implemented in this note help this purpose.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 641.
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Data Revisions; Now-casting; Real Time Economic Analysis. Classification JEL: C22; C53; C82.;
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- Rea - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - - - -
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- Eco - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - - - -
- Ana - General Economics and Teaching - - - - -
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