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Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe

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Author Info
Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (University of Vienna, Austria)
Jaroslava Hlouskova (Institute for Advanced Studies, Austria)

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Abstract

We compare the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates of five Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Slovak Koruna, Slovenian Tolar and Polish Zloty) against the US Dollar and the Euro. Although these models tend to outperform the random walk model for long-term predictions (6 months ahead and beyond), even the best models in terms of average prediction error fail to reject the test of equality of forecasting accuracy against the random walk model in short-term predictions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.952
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 189-201
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:189-201

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Ondřej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Working Papers IES 76, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bask , Mikael & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2006. "Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs," Research Discussion Papers 10/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2008. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with Bayesian dynamic linear models," Quantitative Finance Papers 0802.0214, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
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