Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico
AbstractThe choice of monetary policy is the most important concern of central banks. However, this choice is always confronted, inter alia, with two relevant aspects of economic policy: parameter instability and model uncertainty. This paper deals with both types of uncertainty using a very specific class of models in an optimal control framework. For optimal policy rates series featuring the first two moments similar to those of the actual nominal interest rates in Mexico, we show that recursive thick modeling gives a better approximation than recursive thin modeling. We complement previous work by evaluating the usefulness of both recursive thick modeling and recursive thin modeling in terms of direction-of-change forecastability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2007-04.
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Macroeconomic policy; Model uncertainty; Optimal control; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-06-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-06-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-06-30 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Watt, P A, 1979. "Tests of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions When Disturbance Variances Are Unequal: Some Small Sample Properties," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 47(4), pages 391-96, December.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Aaron Tornell, 1996.
"Exchange Rate Dynamics and Learning,"
NBER Working Papers
5530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Aaron Tornell, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Learning," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1771, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998.
"Policy rules for inflation targeting,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabio Milani, 2008.
"Monetary Policy With A Wider Information Set: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-30, 02.
- Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, EconWPA.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio E. Noriega, 2007.
"Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience,"
2007-01, Banco de México.
- Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
- Soderlind, Paul, 1999.
"Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
- Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Stock and Bond Return Predictability : The Discrimination Power of Model Selection Criteria," Research Papers by the Department of Economics, University of Geneva 2004.05, Département des Sciences Économiques, Université de Genève.
- Paul Jenkins & David Longworth, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 3-10.
- Alejandro Gaytán González & Jesús R. González García, 2006. "Structural Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Mexico: A Non-linear VAR Approach," Working Papers 2006-06, Banco de México.
- Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
- Favero Carlo A. & Milani Fabio, 2005.
"Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, February.
- Favero, Carlo A & Milani, Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 1999.
"Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James H., 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty In A Small Model Of The U.S. Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-110, February.
- Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Laurence Ball, 1998.
"Policy Rules for Open Economies,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006.
"Can Mutual Fund "Stars" Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.
- Kosowski, Robert & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ & White, Hal, 2005. "Can mutual fund stars really pick stocks? New evidence from a bootstrap analysis," CFR Working Papers 05-14, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Honda, Yuzo, 1982. "On Tests of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions When Disturbance Variances Are Unequal," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 50(2), pages 116-25, June.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
- Engert, Walter & Selody, Jack, 1998. "Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 98-7, Bank of Canada.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.