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Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Favero, Carlo A
Milani, Fabio

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Abstract

This paper starts from the observation that parameter instability and model uncertainty are relevant problems for the analysis of monetary policy in small macroeconomic models. We propose to deal with these two problems by implementing a novel ‘thick recursive modelling’ approach. At each point in time we estimate all models generated by the combinations of a base-set of k observable regressors for aggregate demand and supply. We compute optimal monetary policies for all possible models and consider alternative ways of summarizing their distribution. Our main results show that thick recursive modelling delivers optimal policy rates that track the observed policy rates better than the optimal policy rates obtained under a constant parameter specification, with no role for model uncertainty.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4909.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4909

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Related research
Keywords: model uncertainty; optimal monetary policy; parameter instability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Pedro N. Rodriguez, 2006. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 30, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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